Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.005737 1.173861 1.361081 1.584994 1.845527 2.139144 2.495258
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.725208 0.945195 1.217895 1.580706 2.050892 2.639970 3.434834
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.581262 0.819475 1.138151 1.595486 2.235296 3.099374 4.356883
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.465039 0.698934 1.031855 1.540016 2.296563 3.382536 5.063098
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.422469 0.670938 1.044006 1.644491 2.587652 4.014354 6.341932
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.355037 0.592459 0.966439 1.597762 2.638115 4.287514 7.108811
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.300232 0.524188 0.892742 1.542576 2.661393 4.512834 7.819436
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.257316 0.468490 0.830384 1.494713 2.685818 4.736556 8.548301
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.233789 0.442621 0.814280 1.522648 2.841603 5.197802 9.743198
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.223816 0.439582 0.837443 1.622965 3.138342 5.940713 11.538632
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.208207 0.423465 0.834005 1.672207 3.344626 6.540778 13.140386
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.190797 0.401222 0.815680 1.689423 3.489724 7.039873 14.605830
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.171743 0.373553 0.784201 1.678403 3.581726 7.455837 15.980095
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.155160 0.348826 0.755661 1.670092 3.679351 7.897757 17.473954
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.142716 0.331204 0.739476 1.685509 3.828657 8.463952 19.306685
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.125890 0.301308 0.692728 1.626915 3.806850 8.659619 20.345805
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.123381 0.304105 0.718938 1.737254 4.181437 9.773738 23.618338
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.110183 0.279535 0.679228 1.687902 4.176948 10.027419 24.909941
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.098005 0.255726 0.638169 1.629619 4.142918 10.207052 26.045524
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.087690 0.235148 0.602230 1.579069 4.120968 10.412040 27.269843
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.082716 0.227738 0.598028 1.608572 4.305368 11.145414 29.932817
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.081854 0.231178 0.621906 1.714520 4.702219 12.461465 34.287911
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.078401 0.227041 0.625448 1.766524 4.962285 13.456879 37.917903